Morning Comments; Tuesday, February 12th, 2019

Grains are trading mixed on the overnight session.

Final USDA numbers are now behind us with no big reaction by the trade. After further analyst of yield numbers, the US has the potential to increase corn carryout next year without a gain in acres. Despite record ear counts in the big seven corn states, yields shrunk because of smaller ear weights. Another number getting some scrutiny is the corn export number. The USDA did not make an upward revision to the export forecast for next year despite being ahead of schedule in the current marketing year.

For soybeans, the lack of acres switching to corn adds further to the bearish argument. The USDA will begin to put together acreage estimates in a few weeks for the March 31st acreage report. Initial private estimates are not indicating a large acre switch, but Mother Nature could trump producers’ intentions. A cold, wet, late spring like in 2018 can push acres from corn into soybeans by force, not economics. The elephant in the room for soybeans remains the export program, which the USDA has not adjusted lower. The day of reckoning will happen eventually and further add to carryout.

For more information, you may contact Adam Suntken at (712)-454-1061, or e-mail at asuntken@maxyieldcooperative.com. The opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Adam Suntken. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position. Please visit our Risk Disclosure Page for more information on commodity trading.




 

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