Turkey Hatchery
Turkey Hatchery

ISSN: 1949-1964

Released August 14, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on August 1 Up Slightly from Last Year

Turkey eggs in incubators on August 1, 2019, in the United States totaled 
29.2 million, up slightly from August 1, 2018. Eggs in incubators were up 
1 percent from the July 1, 2019 total of 29.0 million eggs.  

Poults Hatched During July Down 2 Percent from Last Year

Turkey poults hatched during July 2019, in the United States totaled 
25.2 million, down 2 percent from July 2018. Poults hatched were up 
10 percent from the June 2019 total of 22.8 million poults.  

Net Poults Placed During July Down 5 Percent from Last Year

The 24.3 million net poults placed during July 2019 in the United States were 
down 5 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. 
Net poult placements were up 14 percent from the June 2019 total of 
21.3 million.

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2017-2019
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : Eggs in incubators  :Percent of:   Poults hatched    :Percent of
                  :   first of month    : previous :    entire month     : previous 
       Month      :---------------------:   year   :---------------------:   year   
                  :          :          :          :          :          :          
                  :2017-2018 :2018-2019 :          :2017-2018 :2018-2019 :          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :  --- 1,000 eggs --    percent        1,000 poults      percent  
                  :                                                                 
September ........:  28,974     27,532       95       23,530     22,443       95    
October ..........:  28,072     28,750      102       24,393     24,295      100    
November .........:  28,605     30,418      106       24,532     29,089      119    
December .........:  27,792     28,492      103       22,272     23,176      104    
January ..........:  28,844     27,831       96       24,406     23,287       95    
February .........:  28,486     28,052       98       22,654     22,495       99    
March ............:  28,362     28,049       99       24,180     23,884       99    
April ............:  28,222     28,218      100       23,482     24,001      102    
May ..............:  28,815     28,018       97       23,503     23,570      100    
June .............:  28,566     27,929       98       23,337     22,843       98    
July .............:  28,565     28,989      101       25,730     25,234       98    
August ...........:  29,090     29,161      100       23,888                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2017-2019
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period
has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      Total all      :Percent of:     Cumulative      :Percent of
                  :       breeds        : previous :        total        : previous 
       Month      :---------------------:   year   :---------------------:   year   
                  :          :          :          :          :          :          
                  :2017-2018 :2018-2019 :          :2017-2018 :2018-2019 :          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     1,000 poults      percent    -- 1,000 poults --    percent  
                  :                                                                 
September ........:  20,670     20,512       99       20,670     20,512       99    
October ..........:  22,030     22,377      102       42,700     42,889      100    
November .........:  21,319     21,108       99       64,019     63,997      100    
December .........:  20,648     19,915       96       84,667     83,912       99    
January ..........:  22,642     20,817       92      107,309    104,729       98    
February .........:  21,340     20,480       96      128,649    125,209       97    
March ............:  22,793     21,691       95      151,442    146,900       97    
April ............:  22,335     22,232      100      173,777    169,132       97    
May ..............:  22,168     21,750       98      195,945    190,882       97    
June .............:  22,597     21,336       94      218,542    212,218       97    
July .............:  25,652     24,314       95      244,194    236,532       97    
August ...........:  23,362                          267,556                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all 
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a 
list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to 
update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted 
each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults 
annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as 
possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data 
reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is 
exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.

Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive 
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. 
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and 
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated 
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices 
prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and 
historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural 
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to 
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates 
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult 
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.

Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period 
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be 
available for slaughter during the calendar year.

Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected 
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey 
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery 
Production - Annual Summary report in April.

Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known 
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, 
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes 
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot 
be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in 
the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data 
for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the 
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. 
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past 
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final 
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the 
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 0.8 percent. This means 
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or 
below the current estimate of 29.2 million eggs by more than 0.8 percent. 
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.4 percent.

Reliability of August Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :  Root mean  : 90 percent  :     Difference between first and latest estimate     
                                   :square error : confidence  :        :        :        :             :             
                                   :             :    level    :------------------------------------------------------
                Item               :             :             :        :        :        :          Months           
                                   :             :             :        :        :        :---------------------------
                                   :             :             :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :   percent       percent      ------- 1,000 -------         ---- number ----      
                                   :                                                                                  
Eggs in incubators ................:     0.8           1.4        171       0       612         17             6      
                                   :                                                                                  
Poults hatched ....................:     1.0           1.7        163       0       637         14             9      
                                   :                                                                                  
Net poult placements ..............:     1.6           2.8        269       0       810         11            12      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@nass.usda.gov

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570

Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ....................... (202) 690-3223
   Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter.............................................. (202) 720-0585
   Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ....... (202) 720-4751
   Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture .. (202) 720-8784
   Adam Peters - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .............................. (202) 690-3237 
   Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................... (202) 690-3676
   Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ................................ (202) 720-3244
   Vacant - Cost of Pollination, Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ....................... (202) 720-6147

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