AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 7 1/2 to 8 3/4 cents higher at midday. After last week’s poor performance, old crop sales of 446,489 MT were indicated in this morning’s Export Sales report. That exceeded most expectations, as it was nearly 3 times above last week and 35.16% larger than this time last year. Japan was the lead buyer, as they purchased 263,100 MT, with Mexico right behind at 209,000 MT. There were also 212,070 MT of new crop sales reported 24.17% behind last week and 58.11% lower than a year ago. On Thursday, China sold 921,782 MT of 1.574 MMT of 2013 and 2014 corn offered at an auction of state reserves.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.91 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $4.05, up 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $4.15 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents

May 18 Corn is at $4.19 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing gains of 14 3/4 to 16 1/4 cents in the nearby contracts on Thursday Front month soy meal $4.90/ton, with Aug 17 soy oil 43 points higher. This morning’s Export Sales report showed old crop sales outperforming analysts estimates at 409,558 MT. This was 79.6% larger than last week and 35.4% above the same week last year. New crop sales came in at 1.523MMT, with 1.3 MMT of that from China, following the trade agreement from last week. Total soy meal sales came in at 117,287 MT, 16.6% behind last week and 44.3% lower than a year ago. Soy oil sales for 16/17 were at 25,393 MT, a 57.1% increase over a week ago but nearly half of last year.

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $10.14 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $10.19 3/4, up 15 3/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $10.28 3/4, up 16 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $10.37, up 16 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal is at $331.50, up $4.90

Aug 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.89, up $0.43

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently mixed, as most KC and CBT contracts are trading higher, with MPLS down 3 to 7 cents in the front months. The USDA announced 669,520 MT for 17/18 all wheat export sales during the week of July 13, well above expectations. That was 87.2% larger than the previous week and 40.1% above last year, as well as a MY high excluding carryover from 16/17. Reports of ND spring wheat acres being turned to livestock feed are running a wide range of estimates, from 5%-30% of planted acreage. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of wheat, with US, Canada and Australia listed as accepted origins.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $5.04 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $5.02 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $7.69 1/2, down 6 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mostly 15 to 65 cents lower at midday. Feeder cattle futures are posting losses of $1.125 to $1.30 in the nearby contracts, with pressure coming from corn. The CME feeder cattle index was up 16 cents on July 18 to $149.16. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the morning report, with choice boxes up 36 cents at $208.09. Select was 37 cents higher, with an average of $195.86. Week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter was 347,000 head through Wednesday, 10,000 below last week and 11,000 above the same week last year. Cash sales were in the $118 area across most regions on Wednesday, with bids of around $117 being reported this morning. Beef export sales came in at 12,368 MT in this morning’s USDA report, down 1 from last week and 13.9% from last year.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $117.125, down $0.150,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $118.225, down $0.650,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $119.025, down $0.650,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.275, down $1.225

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.150, down $1.300

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $151.825, down $1.125

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are down 40 to 92.5 cents in the nearby contracts, with back months higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/18 was 6 cents lower than the previous day at $92.40. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 87 cents lower in the Thursday morning report, with a weighted average of $103.82. All cuts except the belly were lower, as it was up $3.06. The national base hog carcass price was 93 cents lower with a weighted average of $83.86 in this morning’s report. FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was estimated at 1,299,000 head, 15,000 head fewer than last week but 33,000 more than the same week in 2016. The USDA reported pork 2017 pork export sales of 11,738 MT for the week of July 13, 21.2% larger than the previous week and 4.2% above a year ago.

Aug 17 Hogs are at $81.650, down $0.925,

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.400, down $0.400

Dec 17 Hogs are at $63.375, up $0.425

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 49 to 89 points higher, as the US dollar is posting losses of 550 points at the moment. The Cotlook A index for July 19 was at 84.20 cents/lb, up 50 points from the previous day. With just over 2 reporting weeks left in the marketing year, all upland cotton export sales picked up over last week at 27,216 RB for old crop, with 166,210 RB sold for new crop. Total sales were 16.79% larger than a week ago but 25.73% lower than last year. The AWP will be updated later this afternoon. China sold 25,200 MT of the 30,100 MT of cotton offered at Thursday’s auction of state reserves.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 69.65, up 89 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.72, up 61 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.32, up 52 points

May 18 Cotton is at 68.850, up 49 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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