AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures closed the day 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 cents in the red, as export sales were subpar. This morning’s weekly Export Sales report showed old crop corn sales at 457,211 MT, with new crop sales of just 508 MT. Total old and new crop sales were short of the lower end of expectations, and just 52.41% of last week’s total, as they were down 71.87% from last year. Weekly exports ran 31.8% behind last week and 6.45 lower than a year ago at 1.052 MMT. The USDA reported a private export sale of 115,400 MT to unknown destinations for the 16/17 MY but that didn’t move the needle. Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimates the country’s 2016/17 corn production at 46.5 MMT. That is sharply higher than the USDA projection of 40 MMT and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 39MMT.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, down 2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.77, down 2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.97 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures posted losses of 6 3/4 to 9 cents on Thursday, as July closed at a 13 month low. July 17 meal was $1.70 lower, with soy oil down 24 points in the nearby month. Weekly soybean export sales of old crop were 33.1% larger that last week at 472,741 MT, and they were 3.5% above the same time last year. New crop sales, hurt by the large South American crop, were just 6,000 MT. Outstanding new crop sales are just 80.8% of last year’s total to this point. Exports outperformed last year by 178.6%, but were just under the previous week at 334,682 MT. Total soy meal sales ran 159,894 MT, 8% behind last week and 14.6% lower than the same week a year ago. Meal exports were 149,201MT. Soy oil sales were reported at 9,993 MT for 2016/17, just 67% of last week’s sales and well lower than last year. Exports for soy oil came in at 4,573 MT, well short of last week. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimates 2016/17 soybean production at 58 MMT, vs. USDA at 57MMT and BAGE at 57.5 MMT. BAGE says the Argentine soybean harvest is 79.6% complete, up 4.9% over last week.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.39 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.38 3/4, down 9 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.46 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $304.70, down $1.70,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $32.04, down $0.24

Wheat

Wheat futures settled mixed on the day. Both CBT and KC were a penny to 2 cents lower. MPLS was the firmest, fractionally to 2 cents higher in most contracts. Old crop US wheat export sales beat the top end of expectations at 201,851 MT, as they were down 18.5% wk/wk but clearly outperformed last year’s net reductions. New crop sales were at 342,913 MT, just 3.3% lower than a year ago and 12.8% behind last week. All wheat exports were well above last year and 9% larger than a week ago at 733,589 MT. Total exports are 2.7 MMT shy of the 16/17 USDA export estimate, with just two reporting weeks left in the MY. Russia’s SovEcon analytical group increased the country’s wheat production estimate to 63 MMT, an increase of 500,000 MT.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.30 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.31 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.62 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished the day $1.00 to $1.80 higher ahead of tomorrow’s COF report. Feeder cattle futures were mostly 72.5 cents to $2.45 higher, as May expired at $147.525, down 55 cents on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 31 cents on May 24, at $143.09. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, with choice boxes up 3 cents averaging $246.11, and select down 62 cents, with an average of $218.98. The Ch/Se spread has now widened to $27.13. The USDA reported a few live sales of $129-133, with dressed sales at $208-$212 in NE. Week to date estimated FI slaughter through Thursday was 461,000 head, up 10,000 head from the previous week and 15,000 head larger than the same week last year. The Cattle on Feed report will be released at 11:00 a.m. CST on Friday, with May 1 On Feed expected to be 100.6% or so of last year. Beef export sales for the week of May 18 came in at a dismal 7,146 MT. Exports were reported at 13,593 MT.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $123.925, up $1.800,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $121.400, up $1.475,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $117.950, up $1.200,

May 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.525, down $0.475

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.125, up $2.450

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.975, up $2.150

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs ended the day 15 to 75 cents higher in most contracts on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 5/23 was up another 13 cents to $76.07.The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 44 cents higher in the Thursday afternoon report, with an average of $90.30. The butt and loin primals were both lower. The national base hog carcass price was $1.42 higher with a weighted average of $71.73. WTD through Thursday estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.762 million head, 12,000 larger than last week, and 36,000 head above the same time a year ago. Weekly export sales data showed pork sales at 17,576 MT, running 12.5% above a week ago and 26.8% larger yr/yr. Pork exports were 21,870 MT, 6.1% larger than last year.

Jun 17 Hogs closed at $80.950, up $0.750,

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $80.575, up $0.725

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $80.550, up $0.700

Cotton

Cotton futures were lower in the nearby contracts, with deferred months mostly higher. The new AWP (average world price) is down 3.19 cents from last week at 72.44 cents/lb. It is valid from Friday until next Thursday. The Cotlook A index for May 24 was 105 points lower at 87.00 cents/lb. All upland cotton export sales for the week ending May 18 dropped down to just 16,153 RB. That would be down 86.62% wk/wk and 87.43% yr/yr. India had 11,500 RB reported for reductions, with an additional 4,300 RB for Bangladesh. New crop sales, however, increased 43.08% on the week to 236,195 RB. Weekly exports ran 14.25% lower than last week, but showed a 40.7% increase over last year at 332,775 MT. The 2016/17 marketing year ends July 31.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 77.160, down 38 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 74.490, down 1 point

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 72.990, up 14 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com